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METEOROLOGICAL ANOMALIES AND STRONG EARTHQUAKES: A CASE STUDY OF PETROPAVLOVSK-KAMCHATSKY AREA, KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
1 Kamchatka Branch of Geophysical Survey, Russian Academy of Sciences, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
2 Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences
Journal: Geophysical research
Tome: 24
Number: 3
Year: 2023
Pages: 30-51
UDK: 550.34
DOI: 10.21455/gr2023.3-2
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Kopylova
Yu.K G.N. METEOROLOGICAL ANOMALIES AND STRONG EARTHQUAKES: A CASE STUDY OF PETROPAVLOVSK-KAMCHATSKY AREA, KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
// . 2023. Т. 24. № 3. С. 30-51. DOI: 10.21455/gr2023.3-2
@article{Kopylova
Yu.KMETEOROLOGICAL2023,
author = "Kopylova
Yu.K, G. N.",
title = "METEOROLOGICAL ANOMALIES AND STRONG EARTHQUAKES: A CASE STUDY OF PETROPAVLOVSK-KAMCHATSKY AREA, KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
",
journal = "Geophysical research",
year = 2023,
volume = "24",
number = "3",
pages = "30-51",
doi = "10.21455/gr2023.3-2",
language = "English"
}
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Keywords: air temperature, atmospheric pressure, time series, meteorological anomalies, earthquake, shaking intensity, pre-cursors, earthquake forecast.
Аnnotation: Based on the data of long-term (1962–2020) observations of air temperature and atmospheric pressure at two meteorological stations in the area of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky city (Kamchatksky Krai), hypotheses are analyzed about the relationship between increased and decreased values of meteorological parameters as well as their contrast changes with the final stage of preparation of local earthquakes with magnitudes 5.2–8.3, which occurred at epicentral distances of 22–440 km and caused perceptible shaking with intensity of
IMSK-64≥45 points. To identify meteorological anomalies, an empirical method was used to compare the average daily air temperatures and atmospheric pressure with the average daily values of their annual average seasonal functions as well as a formalized method for estimating the minimum normalized entropy En, the logarithm of the kurtosis coefficient lg, and the autoregressive measure of nonstationarity Q2 of the time series of air temperature and atmospheric pressure in a sliding time window with a duration of 112 days with a step of 1 day. Various types of meteorological anomalies before earthquakes were studied at time intervals of 7 and 30 days. The relationship between the identified anomalies and subsequent earthquakes was carried out according to the ratio of the reliability and validity values of a conditional meteorological precursor. A predominantly random nature of the manifestation of various types of meteorological anomalies before earthquakes was found. The absence of a pronounced relationship between an increase in air temperature and subsequent earthquakes casts doubt on the feasibility of the mechanism of generation of thermal near-surface anomalies before earthquakes within the model of complex relationships in the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere–magnetosphere (LAIMC) system for the region under consideration.
The proposed methods for analyzing meteorological data can be used in works on seismic forecasting in the area of Petropavlovsk-Yelizovo agglomeration of the Kamchatksky Krai for diagnosing weather dependent anomalies in the ground-based observational data.
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Chebrov V.N., Droznin D.V., Kugaenko Y.A., Levina V.I., Senyukov S.L., Sergeev V.A., Shevchenko Y.V., Yashchuk V.V., The System of Detailed Seismological Observations in Kamchatka in 2011, Journal of Volcanology and Seismology, 2013, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 16-36.
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Kopylova G.N., Serafimova Yu.K., Lyubushin A.A., Anomalies of meteorological parameters and strong earth-quakes: case study of the Kamchatka Peninsula, in Problemy kompleksnogo geofizicheskogo moni-toringa seysmoaktivnykh regionov. Trudy Vos'moi Vserossiiskoi nauchno-tekhnicheskoi konferentsii s mezhdunarodnym uchastiem (Problems of integrated geophysical monitoring of seismically active regions. Proceedings of the Eighth All-Russian Scientific and Technical Conference with International Participa-tion), Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky: KF FITS YEGS RAN, 2021, pp. 69-73. [In Russian]. DOI: 10.35540/
903258-451.2021.8.10
Kopylova G.N., Yusupov Sh.S., Serafimova Yu.K., Shin L.Yu., Boldina S.V., Hydrogeochemical earthquake precursors (on the example of areas of the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia and the Republic of Uzbeki-stan), Vestnik KRAUNC. Serija nauki o Zemle (Herald of KRAUNTS. Earth Science Series), 2020, no. 4, iss. 48, pp. 5-20. [In Russian]. DOI: 10.31431/1816-5524-2020-4-48-5-20
Lyubushin A.A., Analiz dannyh sistem geofizicheskogo i jekologicheskogo monitoringa (Data analysis of geo-physical and environmental monitoring systems), Moscow, Nauka, 2007, 228 p. [In Russian].
Lyubushin A., Synchronization of Geophysical Fields Fluctuations, Complexity of Seismic Time Series: Meas-urement and Applications, Amsterdam, Elsevier, 2018, pp. 161-197. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-813138-1.00006-7
Lyubushin A., Global Seismic Noise Entropy, Frontiers in Earth Science, 2020, vol. 8, 12 p. https://doi.org/
10.3389/feart.2020.611663
Lyubushin A.A., Seismic Noise Wavelet-Based Entropy in Southern California, Journal of Seismology, 2021a, vol. 25, pp. 25-39. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-020-09950-3
Lyubushin A., Low-Frequency Seismic Noise Properties in the Japanese Islands, Entropy, 2021b, vol. 23, iss. 4, 17 p. https://doi.org/10.3390/e23040474
Lyubushin A.A., Kazantseva O.S., Manukin A.B., Analysis of Long-Term Observations of the Groundwater Level in an Aseismic Region, Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 2019, vol. 55, no. 2, pp. 232-249. DOI: 10.1134/S106935131902006X
Lyubushin A.A., Malugin V.A., Kazantseva O.S., Recognition of “slow events” in an aseismic region, Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 1999, vol. 35, no. 3, pp. 195-203.
Mallat S., A Wavelet Tour of Signal Processing. Second edition, San Diego, London, Boston, New York, Syd-ney, Tokyo, Toronto, Academic Press, 1999, 851 p.
Medvedev S.V., Sponheuer W., Kárník V., Shkala sejsmicheskoj intensivnosti MSK-64 (Seismic Intensity Scale MSK-64), Moscow, Interdepartmental Geophysical Commission of the USSR Acad. Sci. Publ., 1965, 11 p. [In Russian].
Milkis M.R., Hydrogeological and hydrometeorological precursors of the Ashgabat catastrophic earthquake, Doklady Akademii nauk SSSR (Reports of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR), 1983, vol. 273, no. 5, pp. 1091-1094. [In Russian].
Milkis M.R., Meteorological precursors of strong earthquakes, Izvestiya AN SSSR. Fizika Zemli (Izvestiya of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR. Physics of the Solid Earth), 1986, no. 3, pp. 36-47. [In Russian].
Ouzounov D., Pulinets S., Kafatos M.C., Taylor P., Thermal radiation anomalies associated with major earth-quakes, Pre-Earthquakes Processes: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Earthquake Prediction Studies. American Geophysical Union Geophysical Monograph Series 234, USA, New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc, 2018, pp. 259-274.
Pre-Earthquake Processes: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Earthquake Prediction Studies. American Geo-physical Union Geophysical Monograph Series 234, USA, New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc, 2018, 365 p. DOI: 10.1002/9781119156949
Pulinets S., Ouzounov D., Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model – an unified concept for earthquake precursors validation, J. Asian Earth Sci., 2011, vol. 41, pp. 371-382.
Pulinets S., Ouzounov D., The Possibility of Earthquake Forecasting. Learning from nature, Bristol, IOP Pub-lishing, 2018, 167 p. DOI: 10.1088/978-0-7503-1248-6
Pulinets S.A., Ouzounov D.P., Davidenko D.V., Dudkin S.A., Tsadikovsky E.I., Prognoz zemletryaseniy vozmozhen!? (Earthquake forecast possible!?), Moscow, Trovant, 2014, 144 p. [In Russian].
Pulinets S.A., Ouzounov D.P., Karelin A.V., Davidenko D.V., Physical Bases of the Generation of Short-Term Earthquake Precursors: a Complex Model of Ionization-Induced Geophysical Processes in the Litho-sphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere–Magnetosphere System, Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, 2015, vol. 55, no. 4, pp. 521-538.
Riznichenko Yu.V., Dimensions of the source of a crustal earthquake and seismic moment, in Issledovaniya po fizike zemletryaseniy (Earthquake Physics Research), Moscow: Nauka, 1976, pp. 9-27. [In Russian].
Saltykov V.A., Formalized technique of Bezymianny volcano (Kamchatka) eruption forecasting based on the statistical estimation of seismicity level, Geofizicheskiye issledovaniya (Geophysical Research), 2016, vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 45-59. [In Russian].
Surkov V.V., Pre-seismic variations of atmospheric radon activity as a possible reason for abnormal atmospher-ic effects, Annals of Geophysics, 2015, vol. 58, no. 5, 9 p. doi: 10.4401/ag-6808
Zhang K., Feichter J., Kazil J., Wan H., Zhuo W., Griffiths A.D., Sartorius H., Zahorowski W., Ramonet M., Schmidt M., Yver C., Neubert R.E.M., Brunke E.-G., Radon activity in the lower troposphere and its im-pact on ionization rate: a global estimate using different radon emissions, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2011, vol. 11, pp. 7817-7838. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-7817-2011
Bokov V.N., Trigger effect of spatiotemporal variability of atmospheric circulation in the occurrence of earth-quakes: Extended Abstract of Doctoral Sci. (Geogr.) Dissertation, St. Petersburg, Russian State Hydrome-teorological University, 2009, 48 p. [In Russian].
Chebrov V.N., Droznin D.V., Kugaenko Y.A., Levina V.I., Senyukov S.L., Sergeev V.A., Shevchenko Y.V., Yashchuk V.V., The System of Detailed Seismological Observations in Kamchatka in 2011, Journal of Volcanology and Seismology, 2013, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 16-36.
Chebrov V.N., Saltykov V.A., Serafimova Yu.K., Prognozirovaniye zemletryaseniy na Kamchatke. Po materi-alam raboty Kamchatskogo filiala Rossiyskogo ekspertnogo soveta po prognozu zemletryaseniy, otsenke seysmicheskoy opasnosti i riska v 1998–2009 gg. (Forecasting earthquakes in Kamchatka. Based on the work of the Kamchatka Branch of the Russian Expert Council on Earthquake Prediction, Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment in 1998–2009), Moscow, Svetoch Plyus, 2011, 304 p. [In Russian].
Chebrova A.Yu., Chemarev A.S., Matveenko E.A., Chebrov D.V., Seismological Data Information System in Kamchatka Branch of GS RAS: Organization Principles, Main Elements and Key Functions, Geofizi-cheskiye issledovaniya (Geophysical Research), 2020, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 66-91. [In Russian].
Dunajecka M.A., Pulinets S.A., Atmospheric and thermal anomalies observed around the time of strong earth-quakes in México, Atmosfera, 2005, vol. 18, no. 4, pp. 235-247.
Firstov P.P., Makarov E.O., Dinamika podpochvennogo radona na Kamchatke i sil'nyye zemletryaseniya: monografiya (Dynamics of subsoilradonin Kamchatka and strong earthquakes: monograph), Petropav-lovsk-Kamchatsky, KamGU im. Vitusa Beringa, 2018, 148 p. [In Russian].
Genzano N., Filizzaola C., Hattori K., Pergola N., Tramutoli V., Statistical correlation analysis between thermal infrared anomalies observed from MTSATs and large earthquakes occurred in Japan (2005–2015), Jour-nal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2021, vol. 126, 19 p. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JB020108
Hayakawa M., Izutsu J., Schekotov A., Yang S.-S., Solovieva M., Budilova E., Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling Effects Based on Multiparameter Precursor Observations for February–March 2021 Earthquakes (M~7) in the Offshore of Tohoku Area of Japan, Geosciences, 2021, vol. 11, iss. 11, 29 p. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences 11110481
Tverskoy P.N., Kurs meteorologii (fizika atmosfery) (Meteorology course (atmospheric physics)), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1962, 700 p. [In Russian].
Kopylova G., Boldina S., Hydrogeological Earthquake Precursors: A Case Study from the Kamchatka Peninsu-la, Frontiers in Earth Science, 2020, vol. 8, 7 p. doi: 10.3389/feart.2020.576017
Kopylova G.N., Pantyukhin E.A., Firstov P.P., Boldina S.V., Korkina G.M., Chubarova E.G., Taranova L.N., RF Certificate of state registration of the database № 2021622312, 2021.
Kopylova G.N., Serafimova Yu.K., Lyubushin A.A., Anomalies of meteorological parameters and strong earth-quakes: case study of the Kamchatka Peninsula, in Problemy kompleksnogo geofizicheskogo moni-toringa seysmoaktivnykh regionov. Trudy Vos'moi Vserossiiskoi nauchno-tekhnicheskoi konferentsii s mezhdunarodnym uchastiem (Problems of integrated geophysical monitoring of seismically active regions. Proceedings of the Eighth All-Russian Scientific and Technical Conference with International Participa-tion), Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky: KF FITS YEGS RAN, 2021, pp. 69-73. [In Russian]. DOI: 10.35540/
903258-451.2021.8.10
Kopylova G.N., Yusupov Sh.S., Serafimova Yu.K., Shin L.Yu., Boldina S.V., Hydrogeochemical earthquake precursors (on the example of areas of the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia and the Republic of Uzbeki-stan), Vestnik KRAUNC. Serija nauki o Zemle (Herald of KRAUNTS. Earth Science Series), 2020, no. 4, iss. 48, pp. 5-20. [In Russian]. DOI: 10.31431/1816-5524-2020-4-48-5-20
Lyubushin A.A., Analiz dannyh sistem geofizicheskogo i jekologicheskogo monitoringa (Data analysis of geo-physical and environmental monitoring systems), Moscow, Nauka, 2007, 228 p. [In Russian].
Lyubushin A., Synchronization of Geophysical Fields Fluctuations, Complexity of Seismic Time Series: Meas-urement and Applications, Amsterdam, Elsevier, 2018, pp. 161-197. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-813138-1.00006-7
Lyubushin A., Global Seismic Noise Entropy, Frontiers in Earth Science, 2020, vol. 8, 12 p. https://doi.org/
10.3389/feart.2020.611663
Lyubushin A.A., Seismic Noise Wavelet-Based Entropy in Southern California, Journal of Seismology, 2021a, vol. 25, pp. 25-39. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-020-09950-3
Lyubushin A., Low-Frequency Seismic Noise Properties in the Japanese Islands, Entropy, 2021b, vol. 23, iss. 4, 17 p. https://doi.org/10.3390/e23040474
Lyubushin A.A., Kazantseva O.S., Manukin A.B., Analysis of Long-Term Observations of the Groundwater Level in an Aseismic Region, Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 2019, vol. 55, no. 2, pp. 232-249. DOI: 10.1134/S106935131902006X
Lyubushin A.A., Malugin V.A., Kazantseva O.S., Recognition of “slow events” in an aseismic region, Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 1999, vol. 35, no. 3, pp. 195-203.
Mallat S., A Wavelet Tour of Signal Processing. Second edition, San Diego, London, Boston, New York, Syd-ney, Tokyo, Toronto, Academic Press, 1999, 851 p.
Medvedev S.V., Sponheuer W., Kárník V., Shkala sejsmicheskoj intensivnosti MSK-64 (Seismic Intensity Scale MSK-64), Moscow, Interdepartmental Geophysical Commission of the USSR Acad. Sci. Publ., 1965, 11 p. [In Russian].
Milkis M.R., Hydrogeological and hydrometeorological precursors of the Ashgabat catastrophic earthquake, Doklady Akademii nauk SSSR (Reports of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR), 1983, vol. 273, no. 5, pp. 1091-1094. [In Russian].
Milkis M.R., Meteorological precursors of strong earthquakes, Izvestiya AN SSSR. Fizika Zemli (Izvestiya of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR. Physics of the Solid Earth), 1986, no. 3, pp. 36-47. [In Russian].
Ouzounov D., Pulinets S., Kafatos M.C., Taylor P., Thermal radiation anomalies associated with major earth-quakes, Pre-Earthquakes Processes: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Earthquake Prediction Studies. American Geophysical Union Geophysical Monograph Series 234, USA, New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc, 2018, pp. 259-274.
Pre-Earthquake Processes: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Earthquake Prediction Studies. American Geo-physical Union Geophysical Monograph Series 234, USA, New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc, 2018, 365 p. DOI: 10.1002/9781119156949
Pulinets S., Ouzounov D., Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model – an unified concept for earthquake precursors validation, J. Asian Earth Sci., 2011, vol. 41, pp. 371-382.
Pulinets S., Ouzounov D., The Possibility of Earthquake Forecasting. Learning from nature, Bristol, IOP Pub-lishing, 2018, 167 p. DOI: 10.1088/978-0-7503-1248-6
Pulinets S.A., Ouzounov D.P., Davidenko D.V., Dudkin S.A., Tsadikovsky E.I., Prognoz zemletryaseniy vozmozhen!? (Earthquake forecast possible!?), Moscow, Trovant, 2014, 144 p. [In Russian].
Pulinets S.A., Ouzounov D.P., Karelin A.V., Davidenko D.V., Physical Bases of the Generation of Short-Term Earthquake Precursors: a Complex Model of Ionization-Induced Geophysical Processes in the Litho-sphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere–Magnetosphere System, Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, 2015, vol. 55, no. 4, pp. 521-538.
Riznichenko Yu.V., Dimensions of the source of a crustal earthquake and seismic moment, in Issledovaniya po fizike zemletryaseniy (Earthquake Physics Research), Moscow: Nauka, 1976, pp. 9-27. [In Russian].
Saltykov V.A., Formalized technique of Bezymianny volcano (Kamchatka) eruption forecasting based on the statistical estimation of seismicity level, Geofizicheskiye issledovaniya (Geophysical Research), 2016, vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 45-59. [In Russian].
Surkov V.V., Pre-seismic variations of atmospheric radon activity as a possible reason for abnormal atmospher-ic effects, Annals of Geophysics, 2015, vol. 58, no. 5, 9 p. doi: 10.4401/ag-6808
Zhang K., Feichter J., Kazil J., Wan H., Zhuo W., Griffiths A.D., Sartorius H., Zahorowski W., Ramonet M., Schmidt M., Yver C., Neubert R.E.M., Brunke E.-G., Radon activity in the lower troposphere and its im-pact on ionization rate: a global estimate using different radon emissions, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2011, vol. 11, pp. 7817-7838. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-7817-2011
